Venezuela’s oil production is unlikely to undergo disruption
The assessment comes after a US operation on Jan. 3 that led to the detention of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, who was subsequently transferred to New York. In the aftermath, US President Donald Trump signaled that Washington intends to take an active role in reshaping Venezuela’s oil industry.
"We're going to have our very large United States oil companies, the biggest anywhere in the world, go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country," Trump said.
He later stated that interim authorities in Venezuela had agreed to hand over between 30 million and 50 million barrels of oil subject to sanctions. "This Oil will be sold at its Market Price, and that money will be controlled by me, as President of the United States of America, to ensure it is used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States!" Trump wrote in a post.
Despite these assurances, analysts caution that near-term complications remain likely, particularly for exports headed to China, which has become the largest purchaser of Venezuelan crude in recent years. One energy expert noted that uncertainty surrounding the political situation could prompt Chinese buyers to slow transactions.
"Chinese buyers may temporarily delay payments or cargoes as they adopt a wait-and-see approach," he said. "This could result in Venezuelan crude remaining 'on the water' until the geopolitical situation becomes clearer."
While overall production may remain stable in the short term, analysts warn that prolonged uncertainty could weigh on trade flows and discourage investment if clarity does not emerge.
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